Help, Guides, and News on making the Switch To Apple Macintosh Computers
Prediction of 1.64 Million Macs for Q4 2006 Misses By Only 30,000
Be sure to read that article to see how I reached the 1.64 million number. My prediction exceeded the actual number by a mere 30,000 units as I over estimated portable (MacBook and MacBook Pro) units by 14,000 units and desktops (iMac, MacPro, Mac mini, and PowerMac) units by 16,000. The breakdown of portables and desktops were almost exactly on target.What I'd like to point out is that my prediction was more accurate than those put forth by Wall Street analysts and investment firms. When taken together, they had a consensus estimate of 1.47 million Mac sold in the quarter. My prediction exceeded the actual number by only 1.9 percent. The consensus analyst estimate underestimated the number by 8.7 percent! It's clear that those analysts missed the mark and they still don't understand the shift in the mindset of purchasers. Perhaps today's earnings will begin to open their eyes.
In that preview I stated the following:
"I conclude that Apple at least maintained a 16 percent increase in Mac unit sales between the fourth and third quarters. I fully expect that Apple most likely saw somewhere close to a 20 percent increase in Mac unit sales as the Mac is rapidly becoming a popular and viable choice for today's computer buyer."
When the numbers are analyzed here's what we get:
- Apple experienced a 21.3 percent increase in Mac sales between the third and fourth quarters
- My prediction equated to a 23.6 percent increase
Throughout my postings on this site, I have reiterated my view that Macintosh sales would accelerate throughout 2006, the numbers and graph clearly show that they have. Pay close attention to the the slope from the past two quarters. I've predicted that Apple will sell between 6,600,000 and 6,800,000 Macs in fiscal year 2007.
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